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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 8936
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 8936
Forum Topic:
Gold, Oil & Indices (Equity & Bond Indices)
Discuss Gold, Oil & Indices (Equity & Bond Indices)
japan lost a decade... and in that time YEN strengthened...
US recovery story(not saying it is really happening yet) wouldn't be the appropriate fundamental reason for YEN weakening...
2nd... events like the nuclear disaster is like a two-edged sword... wouldn't be assuming it's negative for the YEN....
IF you remember... when the disaster struck... it was positive for YEN... only intervention by G7 nation that it stabilised the YEN....
assumptions are always dangerous and fudamentals would always have two different interpretation...
gl/gt
first, us economy recovery far more fast than we thought, spx DID NOT crash!
second, japan nuclear disaster. (not worse than chernobyl, but certainly worse than three miles island)
with sl 90
chain reaction can restart, buy neutron moderator will cease it.
i know a lot of people understand chernobyl by the movie, but that is just a movie. and if fukushima is worse than chernobyl, you can see japanese hunt every dogs and cats near power plants.
maybe going ahead a bit...
i see 88/89 but 100?
not sure about that.... if yen manages to close above 90.... then it's a possibility...
after 88/89... i see dip to 70...