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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 8936
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 8936
Forum Topic:
Gold, Oil & Indices (Equity & Bond Indices)
Discuss Gold, Oil & Indices (Equity & Bond Indices)
No choice.
US diplomat convinced by Saudi expert that reserves of world's biggest oil exporter have been overstated by nearly 40%
Remember I wrote last week 89 - 85 would be session or two?! ;)
Asad
P.S. 83 seems like a reasonable long...
Time for a discussion on what a risk free rate is in the current environment?
:))
Seriously though, I would presume this must be something rather technical. CDS contracts are thing of their own, there are contracts out there for sovereigns that DON'T have any sovereign debt.
Just a thought
Trading of U.S. credit default swap contracts has more than doubled in recent weeks. Prices have also risen as more investors take out insurance on U.S. debt.
In the past year, a growing number of investors are buying what's known as credit default swaps on AAA-rated nations like the U.S., U.K. and Germany. There has been a 75% increase in activity in the U.S. debt market alone.
Billions of dollars in AAA-rated sovereign debt are now packaged in the CDS market. The growing interest in these products highlights a notable, but small, number of investors who feel the need to protect themselves financially from even the low possibility that the U.S. could default on its debt.
Massive bets on credit default swaps, and similar alphabet soup-like derivatives in the wake of the subprime mortgage meltdown, are one of the reasons why banks like Lehman Brothers and insurance company AIG (AIG, Fortune 500) imploded.
Since the European debt crisis began more than a year ago, interest in credit-default swaps has been on the rise again. This time, the swaps are being written not on residential mortgages and the financial firms with ties to them, but on the debt of countries.
Critics fear these instruments could be used by speculators to attack fiscally challenged governments.
For now, the market for U.S. CDS products is relatively small and illiquid. But it's growing. Data provided by the Depository Trust and Clearing Corporation, a clearinghouse of over-the-counter products, shows 678 CDS contracts trade on U.S. debt, up from 392 contracts a year ago.
Looking at the steepeners, 2y10y and, especially seemingly topping 2y30y, one would presume this rally has less than a month life support left to it. Would you agree?