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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 8936
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 8936
Forum Topic:
Gold, Oil & Indices (Equity & Bond Indices)
Discuss Gold, Oil & Indices (Equity & Bond Indices)
Now that crude has made a new high it constitutes the minimum requirement to validate the count.
But indirectly - yes. If Egypt is not stable, then a key US and Israel ally is lost and this will threaten the fragile balance in the region.
Egypt has not much impact on oil fundamentally but much impact on natgas for Israel.
There are 2 options as far as I can see right now:
1) Mubarak under the pressure from the protesters, resgns tomorrow without any violence and there is a smooth transition of power. At first this will lead to a sell-off in crude. But I think when the protestors in other Middle East countries see that 2nd "dictator" is ousted under the pressure of protest, they will be embolden and this will lead to renewed protests in this countries and this will again bring uncertainty and oil will again rise.
2) Mubarak does not resign under the pressure of the protests. But as I can see it, the protestors are determined to oust him. So I think escalation of violence is inevitable and this will bid oil price further.
So it seems it is a win-win situation for oil. And this is why crude is building on Fri's gains.
The low at 85.11 was exactly 61.8% fib correction of the latest upside move. Check it out.