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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 8935
Forum Topic:

Gold, Oil & Indices (Equity & Bond Indices)

Discuss Gold, Oil & Indices (Equity & Bond Indices)
 
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Boli Mekura
Guam
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
Jan 28, 2011 19:28
Ashraf, one more question:
Don't you think that if stocks turn lower (as you expect, and I concur on this) on this Egypt news, then as risk-aversion risis, Gold will be supported for a test back up (as we see today)? Or you expect the risk for another rate hike from China to offset this gold positive news?
Boli Mekura
Guam
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
Jan 28, 2011 18:33
Ashraf, I am sorry if I sounded too harsh. I respect your work. I just wanted clarity re your SPX calls.
And I thank you for alerting us yesterday that Egypt would be huge news today.
Have a nice wekend.
DaveO
N.Cornwall, UK
Posts: 5733
13 years ago
Jan 28, 2011 18:06
Must admit I thought the SPX 1227 high in November was a significant top and then the sob didnt even make a routine correction, it truncated. US stocks are fixed by the street. One of these days the market will take control again.
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
13 years ago
Jan 28, 2011 17:58
Boli, you're right. I was totally wrong about calling the SPX top at 1220.

But why brag about my wrong calls when I have you to do it ??

Ashraf
Boli Mekura
Guam
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
Jan 28, 2011 17:46
Thanks for the comment Ashraf.
But I also remember you were warning that SP500 will fall when it was just below 1200 a couple of months ago.
I also think now SP500 is due for a correction but it is funny when you continue to brag with correct calls and forget your wrong calls.
Anyway, thanks for the comment.
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
13 years ago
Jan 28, 2011 17:43
IRAQ, GREECE, EGYPT, All cradles of civilisation acting as key catalysts to major market tops.

i warned on Monday, THE LAST TIME THE Dow-30 had 8 straight weekly gains was from March to late April. That winning streak was interrupted in early May coinciding with the MAY 6 FLASH CRASH. This week, the Dow-30 will have its first weekly decline after 8 straight weekly declines...

Six months from now when QE2 is over we may look at the 12,000 top in the Dow-30 and 1,300 top in SP500 and say "Yes, this was Egypt". Last May we said: "This was Greece". Markets need a catalyst (even though it may not a directly relevant to market fundamentals) and this may be it, as it risk lifting oil prices despite already rising bond yields and high unemployment.

I expect the US dollar to retain these gains while metals to began a gradual retreat back as equity indices deepen their declines. We mentioned this week that the last time the Dow-30 had 8 straight weekly gains was from March to late April. The winning streak was interrupted in early may coinciding with the Flash Crash.

HERE IS THE DOW-30 CHART WARNING I POSTED ON MONDAY: http://chart.ly/h5pxfc6


Ashraf
Boli Mekura
Guam
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
Jan 28, 2011 17:33
I guess you also changed your expectations for eurusd 1.40-1.50 this morning and now again expect 1.27 :)
Boli Mekura
Guam
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
Jan 28, 2011 17:30
"gold short sold this morning wti long"

I like it when some people announce such things postfactum. GL
catnip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
Jan 28, 2011 17:24
gold short sold this morning wti long
Qingyu
manchester, UK
Posts: 1763
13 years ago
Jan 28, 2011 17:11
i guess not, because he long crude from 85.8
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