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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 18, 2009 14:11
Comments: 14
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This thread was started in response to the Article:

Equity/Gold Ratio's 40 yr Cycle

Equity/Gold ratio hits 18-yr lows, but cyclical patterns suggest more to come.
 
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
11 years ago
Mar 5, 2009 14:01
Hi Nic,

That is right. And the gold/oil ratio is best used for medium term forecasts on the likely direction of the economy. The way I see it now is that if the Gold/Oil ratio drops considerably, i.e. below 20 mainly on rapid increase in OIL rather than rapid decline in GOLD, then it could signify improvement in global growth and hence more concrete increase in risk appetite.

Ashraf
Nicholas Ellis
California, United States
Posted Anonymously
11 years ago
Mar 4, 2009 22:01
So let me get this concept right.

A low gold to oil ratio means a higher demand for energy and thus a presumption of increased economic activity and more enthusiasm for risk. While a high gold to oil ratio implies less demand for energy and thus a presumption of a contraction in economic activity and less enthusiasm for risk. The opposite can be said about the price movement in Gold in regards to a safe haven.

However, we also need to analyze the reasons driving the change in the ratio. Is it an increase or decrease in just Gold or just Oil or, a combination of both? And, what this relationships is telling us about the human psyche in regards to risk appetite?

Also, this seems like a chart to watch on a daily/weekly/monthly chart to gauge the overall market sentiment not so much a day trading indicator.
Eben
Watch Gold, UK
Posted Anonymously
11 years ago
Mar 1, 2009 22:14
I like all information you're analysising on Gold vrs USD/JYP and it is absolutely true Gold will arise a bite to meet its old occurances for past 40 years.

As Gold raises it definitely affects GBP/USD and EUR/USD... both fellows a trend with USD/JYP. They move in a direction vice versa to Gold. Thanks Ashraf and it is a privileged meeting up all times.

We need to be careful whereby a lot people are thing Gold bull at a time, it doesn't work like that. It will falls some times before it goes up completely.
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
11 years ago
Feb 26, 2009 17:55
DAVE & ROB, the yen is indeed losing its safe haven stature, but not sure whether this will continue for the rest of this market sell-off. Looks like USDJPY will take out the 98.80, after which we'll have to see whether a break of 100.50 is possible. I believe we've yet to see a retest below 90, while a break below 85 may not take place until this summer.
EURJPY looks like will test 127.40. if we take that out, then we're looking at 133, considering no implosion of any Eastern European bank emerges.

Ashraf
Rob
New York, United States
Posted Anonymously
11 years ago
Feb 26, 2009 16:03
And by the way, is EUR/JPY ever going to stop rising? Good time to go long on that as well??
Rob
New York, United States
Posted Anonymously
11 years ago
Feb 26, 2009 14:05
Hi Ashraf,

Considering the terrible conditions in Japan - do you see a perpetual rise in USD/JPY because no one wants the JPY and the USD is still a safe currency even if the VIX rises and risk-appetite plummets with the next inevitable downturn in equities. Good time to go long USD/JPY? I see no good reason for it to turn down. Thanks and hope the Expo in NY was successful for you - glad we got a chance to meet!
Amit
Connecticut, United States
Posted Anonymously
11 years ago
Feb 25, 2009 19:25
Ashraf, i think its safe to say that gold and silver currently are overbought and are more likely to be sold further if market uncertainties are displaced temporarily with gov't statements. The gold however may break 1000 if eastern European problems manifest to cause equity markets to collapse the recent lows.
antlkn
singapore, Singapore
Posted Anonymously
11 years ago
Feb 20, 2009 4:22
Ashraf, nice chart and agreed fully with the equity/ratio analysis. Gold has a bit more to go up.
Dave
New York, United States
Posted Anonymously
11 years ago
Feb 20, 2009 1:58
Ashraf, A recent report says yen is losing its save haven status to the dollar. But I remember you did a study on usd/jpy 5-year cycle last October. What's your take on the yen now?
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
11 years ago
Feb 19, 2009 9:49
Hi Jay,

As an article in today's FT put it. this gold mani is the most substantive and logical. Although demand for jewellerry is not as strong as investor and physcial coins demand, the prospects of a sharp spike beyond $1,000 are quite high. Not sure if the Dow/Gold ratio will have to drop back to 1980 level i.e. 1.3, but you can use 2.0 as a target from the current 7.4.

Ashraf