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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Aug 13, 2009 16:38
Comments: 200
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This thread was started in response to the Article:

Unsustainable Appetite in FX, Equities & Oil

We're witnessing more signs of peaking appetite, this time inside the individual Forex pairs, as well as more failure in oil and Chinese stocks
 
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Moe
Sharjah, United Arab Emirates
Posts: 50
15 years ago
Aug 21, 2009 15:52
Ashraf

Hi, The existing home sales were better than expected, but the dollar is getting stronger. Can we expect this dollar strength to continue during the sesssion. I have sold crude at 74? what are your views.

Thanks
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Aug 21, 2009 15:43
waqonomics, check out www.td.com/economics

Pipster, what i meant by intervention is verbal jawboning from the BoC head Carney when he speaks this weekend. So careful about overly selling USDCAD. 1.0735 next key barrier.

Hamish, i have been wrong in expecting no breach above 74 in oil. But im not closing my short oil positions on ETFs

Ashraf
hamish
vancouver, Canada
Posts: 26
15 years ago
Aug 21, 2009 14:17
Ashraf, re IMT Aug 19 "when you force etc,etc." Do you still hold the view that current oil prices are unsustainable? If so would 67/68 be a reasonable target?
Pipster
birmingham, UK
Posts: 111
15 years ago
Aug 21, 2009 13:59
Ashraf/ Forum,

Can some one clarify the following with USD/CAD. Ashraf you mention the BoC possibly intervening over the weekend, and a possible strengthing in the CAD. Would this mean that a long position is approproiate.

Thanks

Saeed
waqonomics
London, UK
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Aug 21, 2009 12:41
Hi,

is it possbile if someone could do a piece on the nok vs cad? or if any one knows where i could find it on the net. i see that the outright pairs have broken or are near key levels so i fancy getting in on the trade.
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Aug 21, 2009 12:14
jack,Moe, exactly i favour NOK over CAD as BoC is ore vocal in intervening. Carney of the BoC will speak on Saturday from Jackson Hole and should hint at CAD strength. 1.0820 is KEYsupport.


Ashraf
waqonomiics
London, UK
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Aug 21, 2009 10:42
Hi Gunjack,

I think you make a good point about the NOK vs CAD. I was wondering if you had found any interesting articles about it on the net or any other forums, so i can investigate it.



Thanks
Moe
Sharjah, United Arab Emirates
Posts: 50
15 years ago
Aug 21, 2009 9:46
Hi Ashraf

Do you support buying USD/CAD @ 1.0850?
Gunjack
London, UK
Posts: 1184
15 years ago
Aug 21, 2009 9:38
Hi Ashraf - What are your views on a convergence trade b/ween USDCAD and USDNOK. BOC has stated that they will intervene to revent a strong CAD, plus they could be starting QE later on which would surely effect this pair. On the USDNOK side Norway seem to be coming out of recession quicker than others and Norges bank have maintained a anti inflation stance by having a higher i-rate than other natiosn/trading blocs...so to summarise long USDCAD v short USDNOK

Thanks
Gunjack
asad
London, UK
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Aug 21, 2009 0:48
fdasalguero,

"Asad, I don`t agree in one sense with your strategy. I like that you diversify in different prices your risk so you have more oportunities to close a position with profits but if you have a bearish strategy for example in oil it makes more sense to open the bigger position at 73 and the smaller one at 69 reducing the posibilities of incurring in bigger losses in case of a retracement."

- You are precise in stating and certainly, I would set a bigger short position initially...and keep reducing the positions at different price levels...but please understand that this situation in different!

The price can go from 73 - 71 and hold...from 71 - 69 and hold...but if it breaks, say, 68.50, it's all the way down to 64! In this case, there's a bigger 'short' margin at a lower price level...so this is why I suggested this strategy to Radu (esp/ keeping in mind his losses).

On a normal trading day signalling short, yes...I would follow the strategy outlined by you.
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