Forum > View Topic (Article)
This thread was started in response to the Article:
Unsustainable Appetite in FX, Equities & Oil
We're witnessing more signs of peaking appetite, this time inside the individual Forex pairs, as well as more failure in oil and Chinese stocks
Are you still upset at me? :S
Crucify me two-mo later...but shorting oil until the year end IZZZ the strategy (barringextraordinary events like Iran/Israel tension, militant strikes in SA or mass unrest in Nigeria). I don't know why...but oil in Oct/Nov looks b/w 40 - 50 range. Only time will tell... :)
there are so many early warning signs that a stock market correction is coming which would unwind risk positions and inflation-linked assets DOWN.
do some research on the baltic index and figure out the directional trend of this key indicator.
of course, downwards movement in china is also a massive early warning signs for developed markets.
also, think hard about the recent rally it strongly mirrors the crash and post rally of the great depression. whilst monetary conditions are not the same as they are now (QE) economic indications are very weak and so is inflation.
so i would certainly see shorts in crude at current levels as wise for very near term and through 2009.
Mark this. Barring some unfavorable news from the ME - Iran/Israel...oil IS heading downward! I still believe that oil has a shorting range of $8 - 10 from here. This is how they play. Hype it up w/ inventories news (you guys MUST be knowing that the world's storage capacity - Cushings included - is close to 90%...so 6m barrels decline don't REALLY matter), hurricane news (wasn't it supposed to miss?) etc. The last two days have been a classic lesson in intermarket analysis!
Radu, I wrote in my last post that I had two short positions w/ an average of 68 - I closed a little above it and now am opening a new short position at 73. Then I will start planning vacations all the way down to 65. :p If your risk appetite allows you, open a short position. If nothing, oil will be near 70 by morning...and ofcourse, the weekend profit-taking!
Money doesn't know places... If there is an opportunity in shorting crude, why not? I have been all day long on crude and made good money but I think a pullback in imminent after the surge that happened during the last three days...