USD Exhales

A strong US jobs report, a dovish BoE, cautious RBA and USDX successfully avoiding to break below its 200-WMA. Is this the positive confluence USD bulls have been waiting for? Better than expected 209K Jul NFP reading, strong 0.3% m/m in wages and 2.5% y/y were in line or better than expectations. More strikingly positive, the unemployment rate fell to 4.3% from 4.4% as the participation rate rose to 62.9% from 62.8%, further confirming the tightness of US labour markets. The market probability for a Dec Fed rate hike rose to 42% from yesterday's 38%, while odds of a September hike remained little changed at 5%. FX trading will go into snooze mode for the rest of month, with rumblings about Jackson Hole conference and the odd macro  figures drawing attention. A new charts note on EURUSD has been posted to our premium subscribers.

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