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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Aug 21, 2008 1:37
Comments: 525
View Analytic
This thread was started in response to the Analytic:

Speculators' Futures FX Positions

The weekly figures on traders' futures commitments obtained from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's International Monetary Market shed valuable light on the developing flows pursuing one currency versus another.
 
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Steven Blyth
London, UK
Posts: 148
15 years ago
Aug 10, 2009 11:37
Thanks Ashraf.
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Aug 10, 2009 1:06
Steven, i still think a much lower USD in December, but intermediate strength into Sep-Nov. So your
long AUD and EUR positions better be longer term positions. But an Aussie retracement back to 0.75 is surely in the works. Long EURGBP is also a good medium term play. So it depends what you want to do. nibble here and there or hold for the long term.


Ashraf
Steven Blyth
London, UK
Posts: 148
15 years ago
Aug 9, 2009 23:14
Hi Ashraf,

Theres talk of the Aussi/USD dropping to 75 in the next 3 months and Aus/Jpy to 73 within a month. Whats your feeling on this? I'm currently Long Aus/USD till December and wondering if this is a good short opportunity? (Double checking your year end target for AUS/USD is: $1,100.)

Im currently:
long USD/CAD
long EUR/GBP
Long Aus/USD
Long EUR/USD


Your guidance is appreciated

Steven
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Aug 7, 2009 9:54
Bubbles, I could give the not-so always tested answer of stocks going down gold going up view. But since I contineu to view gold in a secular bull market since 2003, Im still long gold. However, trend line resistance does stand at 980. I think we'll have more downside from here, seeing 905 before we see 990 and 1,200 in Q1 2010.

Cappy, As per the JPY crosses charts i posed on my IMT yesterday, AUDJPY seems to have topped out on weekly double top and could see 78.80.


Ashraf
Cappy
United States
Posts: 19
15 years ago
Aug 7, 2009 6:00
Hi Ashraft,

You mentioned awhile back about the Aussie dropping around 200 pips everyday. I have been following this and it is pretty much true. How long do you think this will continue?

How far down do you see the GDP/USD dropping?

Thanks,
Cappy
bubbles
vancouver, Canada
Posts: 3
15 years ago
Aug 7, 2009 2:12
Hi Ashraf. On the subject of risk aversion, do you see gold bullion getting a piece of the action this time? All eyes are watching for a sustained break of the 1000 dollar resistance line. Could a global stockmarket pullback be the catalyst needed to drive gold over the fence?
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Aug 7, 2009 0:05
Get ready for a busy day tomorrow. starting with Canadian jobs at 11 GMT followed by US payrolls. The markets wants to head lower. Telecoms didnt like what Cisco had to say. USDCAD high positioning at this time of the day despite rising oil is telling us something.

Ashraf
speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Aug 6, 2009 23:34
qin im not bullish usd against all currencies. but you will be trapped when the risk climate changes and surprises you. think about it, if we are in a w shape as you say, you cant expect stocks and oil to keep going up they are bound to give up large gains.

traders are not the best at long term preditions, but much better shorter term. i dont talk short term as im not a day/week trader.
Qin
Jonkoping, Sweden
Posts: 492
15 years ago
Aug 6, 2009 23:03
Hey, speculator
I never seen a guy like you are always so confident comment on the market everyday. Because I didn't see any predictions from you were right, but still you never giving up a try.

Are you trying to be a trader or be a commentator? I think you have talent to be a commentator. Most of commentator from CNBC even can't make a living if they trade by themselves.

Maybe my words hurt you, but just think about if some inexperienced people take your advice, but get loss......what will he or she think about you?? Please never speak so firmly on your prediction.

If you are so really bullish on USD, just go to buy some 30 year bond on the auction now and keep it for 30 year......I don't think you will have a very happy result.

Good luck.
speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Aug 6, 2009 20:00
the pound has probably reached its peak this year
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