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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Aug 21, 2008 1:37
Comments: 525
View Analytic
This thread was started in response to the Analytic:

Speculators' Futures FX Positions

The weekly figures on traders' futures commitments obtained from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's International Monetary Market shed valuable light on the developing flows pursuing one currency versus another.
 
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redstone
UK
Posts: 25
15 years ago
Aug 2, 2009 17:24
Thanks Ashraf. If the banks report good figures this week will we see a run up in the GPB and if so how long will it last do you think ?
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Aug 1, 2009 20:20
redstone, i stay away from the extreme high yielders such as the Lire, whose high yields is more than made up for by the extreme volatility. With leveraged trading, the 10% yield can be taken out in seconds. best to play Long term Aussie vs JPY, USD.

mo, i have a weak bias against GBP. One fundamental element that could keep GBP fired up is in the event that BoE does NOT open a new guilt purchase program http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/b389fe54-7df8-11de-8f8d-00144feabdc0.html


Ashraf
mo
liverpool, UK
Posts: 123
15 years ago
Aug 1, 2009 1:16
Hello Ashraf

cable's breakout from the range is or not? do you see retreat towards lower 1.60 next week? what is the next resistnce level?

Thanks
redstone
UK
Posts: 25
15 years ago
Jul 31, 2009 20:47
Many thanks Ashraf was planning on a 2-3 month hold. Just out of interest any opinions on the turkish lira . Its paying 10% interest ?
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Jul 31, 2009 19:37
redstone, AUDGBP running into major resistance so be careful. but still a decent long term buy for the next 3-6 months.

Ashraf
redstone
UK
Posts: 25
15 years ago
Jul 31, 2009 19:25
Evening guys any idea where AUD/GPB is heading please
Qin
Jonkoping, Sweden
Posts: 492
15 years ago
Jul 31, 2009 18:33
Hey, Mo
I had a few profits when I closed my positions.
I think CAD will have a correction for a little bit toward 1.12 or 1.13....I feel the same about the paper as you. FX market is very unpredictable. That is why I only short USD, with my long term view.

I am very bearish US Dollar and Pound in a long term.
Last time US dollar rally was made by stock declining and very well selling on US bond auctions.

US bond didn't sell very well this week, stock and commodities rally together.
I am waiting for US bond collapse with US dollar when the gobble economy shows very clear sign of recovery. People will rush to sell US bonds just like they bought recently. The reason is I don't believe that investors want to hold 30 years bonds for 30 years, but only can receive 3% interest every year. I guess it should go to more then 10%.

Good luck with your positions!



mo
liverpool, UK
Posts: 123
15 years ago
Jul 31, 2009 18:14
Hello Qin

This week was bad, I have few losses in GBP/USD.

Through out the week I was buying USD against the cable but unfortunately I got stopped out every time.
I entered big position few minute ago. Short GPB/USD with 4 lots at 1.6712.
I think the Cable is overbought at these level.
i have looked at the papers you send me --very interasting-- but i am not sure which Source to follow, there are so many analysis out there and every one have his own opinion, some say buy the other say sell .

Why you decide to close your account? Have you profited from the recent Cad rally?
Qin
Jonkoping, Sweden
Posts: 492
15 years ago
Jul 31, 2009 17:52
Hey, Mo
How are u doing recently?? Did you read the paper I sent to you? And what do you think about it?

I didn't trade anything recently........I am closing some of my account and try to open new account in DBFX.

Best regards
Qin
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Jul 31, 2009 17:46
mo, still hard for GBP to stay above 1.67. good for short term shorts in cable. ISM and precaution ahead of payrolls will limit the action

Ashraf
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