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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Aug 21, 2008 1:37
Comments: 525
View Analytic
This thread was started in response to the Analytic:

Speculators' Futures FX Positions

The weekly figures on traders' futures commitments obtained from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's International Monetary Market shed valuable light on the developing flows pursuing one currency versus another.
 
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Steven Blyth
London, UK
Posts: 148
15 years ago
Jun 29, 2009 16:55
Thanks Ashraf. Do we usually see USD strength over Yen when equities are up or is that to simple?
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Jun 29, 2009 16:29
Steven, JPY is falling across the board as stocsk at best levels of the day. rising stocks, flaling USD falling JPY.

Ashraf
Steven Blyth
London, UK
Posts: 148
15 years ago
Jun 29, 2009 16:24
USD/JPY: Ideas on whats causing USD strength in this pair?
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Jun 29, 2009 15:56
raj, cougr, spec, yes in medium term we can see 82.75 in USDX

Ashraf
speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Jun 29, 2009 13:04
i think the USDX had reached support back in 2008 before Lehman and is on the way up over the medium term - I would probably be laughed at tho.
cougr
Australia
Posts: 101
15 years ago
Jun 29, 2009 12:21
Ashraf , withdrawal of equities support after quarters end ,ie tomorrow ,could easily see Aussie drop
to the level you mentioned below.
14raj
Kolkata, India
Posts: 210
15 years ago
Jun 29, 2009 11:44
Ashraf,
can we expect a bounce of 82.5 for Dollar Index in very short run?Coz for last few sessions there is real consolidation in the price of dollar Index. From my side I am just expecting 82.50 range in Dollar Index and then a sharp fall towards 75.80 level.
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Jun 29, 2009 11:33
Spec, yes, i agree dollar is due for a bounce in H2. but it's more in Q3 before we see a sharp decline in Q4. As for the use of terms such as bear and bull market. The dollar has remained in a secular bear market since 2002 and all we had seen in H2 2008 was correction in that bear market. Thus,Q3 is to see another correction before a resumption of the bear market in late Q4.

Ashraf
speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Jun 29, 2009 10:59
CIBC, Wells, BoA and Deutche see strong dollar in H2. See Bloomberg today!

Their argument is that US will be first to come out of recession and US dollar will remain as a Haven for investors. They are more likely to be stocks bearish and US Government bond bullish. Also, last weeks US auction of debt proved to be oversubsribed particularly via overseas investors. So this is more to add against the speculation of the dumping of the US dollar.

we are going through a seasonal mini bear market for the dollar where investors diversified out of the dollar not because they didnt like it but to take advantage of world stock market rallies around the world. the sustainability of this rally is highly questionable and we are likely to see a gradual appreciation of the dollar. I believe we are heading for a dollar bull market marking the end of the bear in 2008 contrary to what people think. the only competition the dollar has is china, not the euro.

I expect $1.25/ year end.
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Jun 29, 2009 10:04
cougr, i see Aussie testing 0.7880 by mid week

Ashraf
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