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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 2338
Forum Topic:

USD

Discuss USD
 
cat0nip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posts: 1632
13 years ago
Apr 25, 2011 9:14
Apparently PBOC and some oligarchs spread the rumors... background could be strike of truck drivers. rate hikes and RRR up to 21% didn't quell real inflation so they tell fairy tales:
hike wages 15%
revalue RMB 10%
and now reduce US reserves by 2/3...
I think there is only one action
free float of RMB
and
hang the criminal princelings higher
Qingyu
manchester, UK
Posts: 1763
13 years ago
Apr 23, 2011 11:56
today's rumor is reduce foreign currency reserve, but not revaluation RMB. it seems they still want to fight to Dear Ben.
Qingyu
manchester, UK
Posts: 1763
13 years ago
Apr 23, 2011 11:45
cat, nice to read your comment!
jacek
Melbourne, Australia
Posts: 2579
13 years ago
Apr 23, 2011 1:28
I would call this a real Easter miracle.. and would also make me a prophet (we are so modest, eh Dave:) btw I did put few US$ banknotes in my (fx portfolio) basket along with the eggs for blessing this weekend..
cat0nip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posts: 1632
13 years ago
Apr 22, 2011 20:11
Quingu
hard to believe ...
if RMB is appreciated 2- 5% to the USD the reserves and UST assets will also lose 2-5% in RMB.
This doesn't make sense thus the most probable consequence is USDx raises also 2-5%. If that is so, China makes after all an effective move to quell inflation. Commodities would drop significantly.
Qingyu
manchester, UK
Posts: 1763
13 years ago
Apr 22, 2011 11:01
beijing use all their methodology to cook up CPI, but still above 5%. idiots!
Qingyu
manchester, UK
Posts: 1763
13 years ago
Apr 22, 2011 10:59
Cat, i smell rats, can you help?

rumor china raise RMB by one time, around 1st may, by 2-3%(maybe 5%). how will this affect on usdx?
Qingyu
manchester, UK
Posts: 1763
13 years ago
Apr 22, 2011 10:50
usikpa, no, raise wage is beijing methodology to against CPI raise, especially food raise. and this raise will only affect to people wage under 500 usd per month, i guess, may be just under 300-400 usd per month.

the key reason would be keep people at home but not gathered on street against governor.

if they do raise wage, i dont think we will change our government in this crisis. even pork price double can not bring people on street show their power.
cat0nip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posts: 1632
13 years ago
Apr 22, 2011 8:30
It is only and only Merkel's plans of transfer union that holds EUR up. The plan means basically
saving Ezone banks. No restructuring no haircuts. Since these bailout after bailout is the very same as QE ( but with the difference that it isn't clear how much more bailouts will be needed)
the fx markets bet on a series of rate hikes. Of course the transfer union finds broad support
in the PIIGS ..but nowhere else. Thus the thread the EUR hangs on is much thinner than the USD support. It is clear FED must continue to monetize US treasuries, it is also clear that the US cannot default as it is indebted in its own currency. But US banks don't hold US treasuries while Ezone banks are full to the brim with PIIGS debt. Thus EUR can default from within.
usikpa
Moscow, Russia
Posts: 77
13 years ago
Apr 22, 2011 7:35
So, Ashraf has finally lost all his hope for the dollar, staying committed to 1.49 for the Euro in its current upleg.

Could it just be like back in the end of 2009 when he said he had envisioned 1.57 by the end of that year, only to witness a grand reversal at 1.51?

After all, German Ifo and PMI look like rolled over the hill, the last PPI m-o-m was almost flat, and the so hot german GDP growth in the 1st quarter is projected a meager 0,8 per cent, which is what ... twice as low as in the US?

Technically the Fed should start hiking as soon as the core CPI is close or over 1.6% (it is 1.2% in the US vs 1.3% in Europe now). This is so because by the time the Fed has raised to 1 per cent, the core may well have swung over the 2 per cent threshold. And the core is on the rise (just look at the prices received in the Fed's local reports)

And Ben Bernanke is NOT Alan Greenspan. The treasury bubble is to burst.

Everywhere we look, the charts are parabolic. Feels like a correction is in the air.

Thoughts on the dollar, anyone?