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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 2338
Forum Topic:

USD

Discuss USD
 
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
13 years ago
Apr 20, 2011 19:16
Strong Tax Day Collections - From MNI FX Bullets

12:26 04/20
US VIEW: Strategas Research notes that "Tax Day tax collections
were very strong, with tax revenues after the first 12 business days in
April up 14.8% over last year, despite the payroll tax cut." Higher tax
collections may "buy a week or 2 more on the debt limit," the report
says. However, if federal tax collections are up, state governments will
likely also see increased revenue. "And since states have cut spending
(unlike the federal government), the revenue will boost state balance
sheets," the report says. Strategas maintains that this effect is likely
to be "very strong in CA, NY, NJ and CT in particular."


Ashraf
jacek
Melbourne, Australia
Posts: 2579
13 years ago
Apr 20, 2011 15:28
is loonie trying to tell us something here.. time to dip into DXY!?..
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
13 years ago
Apr 20, 2011 14:04
Another Goldman Sachs downgrades of US Q1 GDP..this time to 1.75%

By MNI FX Bullets

US OUTLOOK: Goldman says Q1 GDP consensus "have moved down sharply" and
are now about +2% -- their own forecast is +1.75%. "Fortunately, other
measures of US growth - such as our Current Activity Indicator (CAI) -
continue to look quite strong. Also, our analysis indicates that current
GDP growth is not a very good predictor of next quarter's GDP growth,
once we take into account other information. We therefore remain
comfortable that growth will reaccelerate in Q2."

Ashraf
jacek
Melbourne, Australia
Posts: 2579
13 years ago
Apr 20, 2011 13:03
Per un pugno di dollari.. anyone? as we approach bottom of that hudge wedge and that magical 74.20.. perhaps loonie should be the next reserve currency..
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
13 years ago
Apr 20, 2011 12:18
US EXISTING HOME SALES at 10 EST head off todays US macro calendar, expected to rise back above the 5M mark. Note that this is the least price-sensitive of the US housing data points - in other words, distressed homeowners are far less willing to take a loss than the homebuilders are inclined to move inventory through discounting. Last month's median sale price component - a 9-year low $156K - suggested more and more sellers are waving the white flag.

PRE-MARKET OPEN US EARNINGS session will see Q1 results from cloud stalwart EMC as well as Altria. ATT will post its quarterly results and likely defend the hefty pricetag it offered to DT for T-Mobile USA. Rail giant Union Pacific is likely to benefit from rising fuel costs, while Wells Fargo will round out the earnings from banking heavyweights. Note that this perennial Buffett favorite saw the Omaha oracle boost his holdings even further during the most recent reported quarter.

By GG- AshrafLaidi.com Staff

Ashraf
jacek
Melbourne, Australia
Posts: 2579
13 years ago
Apr 20, 2011 12:05
I'm not sure I'm with you there Dave.. there is a lot of straight volatility trading/hedging these days through CME or OTC so VIX behaves differently now.. Im still trying to figure it all out but tend to look on VIX now as another stock or future.. and less as a predictor of anything..
DaveO
N.Cornwall, UK
Posts: 5733
13 years ago
Apr 20, 2011 11:40
I was reminded today to look back on VIX chart to pre crisis levels where it was trading around 10 level so current c.15 to 18 range not as complacent we might feel. If I personally were trading options based only upon my personal fundamental opions the vix would be at all time highs and remain there :-)
DaveO
N.Cornwall, UK
Posts: 5733
13 years ago
Apr 20, 2011 11:35
DX #F now made my last symmetry projection (74.70). However looking at mkts today I have low confidence the level will hold :-) The S&P downgrade powerful catalyst !
jacek
Melbourne, Australia
Posts: 2579
13 years ago
Apr 20, 2011 3:49
is this one step forward two steps back on DXY to stay with us for while?.. it seems it's heading for 74.20 retest at least..
jacek
Australia
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
Apr 19, 2011 1:47
vix still below 17!?.. asia-pacific might ignore it all.. watching yen.. no commitment there as yet.. could it be that intervention is still on in all markets!? what WB knows we don't? shortage of printing paper perhaps?..